Labour hold a 4-point lead in the latest Opinium poll — up one to 28%, with Reform UK slipping back a point to 24%. The Conservatives are down again to 18%, while the Liberal Democrats tick up to 11%, level with the Greens.
Four points is a lead worth watching rather than banking. With this margin of error, the real story is the direction of travel: Reform’s momentum has stalled for a second week, and the smaller parties are picking up the difference. Seat projections tell a sharper version of the same story — if the this poll translated by universal national swing (which never happens…) then Labour would 18 short of an overall majority in the Commons. You can view the projected seat changes here.
We’ll keep tracking the numbers that matter for our clients’ planning and public affairs work as the picture shifts.
Source: PollCheck / Opinium, 5 September 2026 → pollcheck.co.uk