Labour’s lead holds at 29.7% in PollCheck’s 7-poll average, 7.8 points clear of the Conservatives, but the real contest this week is for second place: the Conservatives and Reform UK have converged to a dead heat.
Labour has now led 26 polls in a row, 33 days of polling. PollCheck’s running total has that streak reaching 184 polls led in all; the site doesn’t fully spell out the reference point for that figure, so take it as directional rather than exact. None of this has changed much in weeks.
What has moved is the chasing pack. The Conservatives are up 2.6 points over the last month to 21.9%, while Reform UK has dropped 1.6 points to 21.7%. The two parties are now within a rounding error of each other, a genuine shift from a year ago, when Reform led the entire field on 29.9% and Labour was stuck at 18.4%. That reversal, not this week’s seat arithmetic, is the real polling story of the past twelve months.
Further down the table, the Liberal Democrats sit at 9.4%, down 3.2 points on their 2024 result, and the Greens at 8.6%, up 1.7. Restore Britain, a new entrant since the last election, is on 4.4% and climbing.
On seats: run today’s vote share through a uniform national swing and PollCheck’s constituency model points to a 341-seat Labour majority, comfortably clear of the 326 needed. That’s worth noting, but it’s illustrative rather than predictive. Uniform swing assumes every seat moves by the same amount regardless of its starting point, which misses tactical voting and local campaign effects entirely, and those tend to matter most precisely in the close, second-place fight this week’s vote share is pointing to. Reform’s 21.7% of the vote converting into only 39 seats under this model is a reminder of how badly first past the post treats a vote that is spread rather than concentrated, but the actual seat count on the night could move a good deal from this projection once local and tactical factors are in play.
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