Good morning from London,

Kevin’s away, so you’ve got me. I’m the Conservative-voting half of Lowick Hedry, so read accordingly.

Five conferences in five weeks, and five episodes of Political Business to go with them. With the season done and the budget 16 days away, here’s how each one landed. The short version is that it went best for the traditional two, Labour and the Conservatives.

Reform went first, and it was meant to be a policy launch. It ended up being about donations and infighting, which we picked apart in our post-conference episode after I interviewed their London mayoral candidate, Laila Cunningham, on the floor. This week’s polling is no kinder. Election Maps UK’s Nowcast has Reform on 63 seats, almost all of them off Conservative and Labour losses, while their vote share fell. A party handed seats by other people’s mistakes isn’t building anything.

The Lib Dems were in Brighton, where Stephen Gregory asked Sarah Olney and Bridget Smith whether the party is being serious enough for business. The better question is whether it’s serious about its leader. Ed Davey spent the conference being asked whether he should stay, and on Friday their Treasury spokesperson, Charlie Maynard, resigned to try to unseat him.

Labour had the best of it. Kevin and I were on the floor in Liverpool digesting Burnham’s vision, and Kevin interviewed Defence Secretary Wes Streeting, all in the Labour special. Our Sunday Polling update yesterday morning led on Opinium’s post-conference poll, and Burnham is still the only leader anyone nets positive on personally, at +8, with Labour comfortably ahead on vote share. Survation, taken just before the Tory conference, has Labour on 30%, Reform on 24% and the Tories on 19%. The harder number is seats. The Nowcast has Labour’s majority at 20, down 76.

The Greens followed in Brighton, where Kevin spoke to the leader of Southwark Council, James McAsh, about how the party wants to do business in London. Zack Polanski’s pitch to the hall was “Vote Green, see Labour move”: a wealth tax, a windfall tax on the banks, capital gains tax at income tax rates. Then came Thursday. Labour held Holborn and St Pancras, Sagal Abdi-Wali taking 45% to Polanski’s 33%, in a seat that takes in King’s Cross, a stone’s throw from our London office. Polanski will tell you 33% is a breakthrough. It was second place, after a week answering for his own conference’s motion on Zionism.

And then the Tories, in Birmingham, where Kevin and I were back on the floor for the Conservative special. Kemi Badenoch had the better week of the opposition. The Conservatives are up three points off her speech and an inheritance tax pledge with 50% public support, a bounce from a low base. It was the best she’s been as leader, because it had an argument: economic competence and the aspirational voter, not a bidding war with Nigel Farage. She shut the door on Reform too, and “We are not uniting with that” got one of the loudest cheers in the hall. The caveat is that only around a third of the voters who like her would currently vote Conservative. On the episode you’ll also hear Sir James Cleverly’s pitch to London.

Right. Onto the budget, briefly, because we’ll go through the details in the coming weeks.

This is Operation Reassure the Markets first and a big budget second. Healey has told cabinet that anyone wanting money for new priorities can find it in their existing budget, and Streeting says the big call on defence waits for next year’s spending review. Expect targeted help on energy bills and the high street, a modest tax package led by the banks, and the big decisions in 2027. Polanski wants to see Labour move. The bank surcharge will, capital gains tax might, and a wealth tax won’t. Reform’s Robert Jenrick is already calling it a third tax raid in a row.

Sixteen days of leaks and denials to go. Most of it will be wrong.

If you’d like to understand what all this means for your business, organisation or cause, do get in touch.

Have a great week,
Nathan

p.s. catch up on all five conference episodes of Political Business (here), wherever you get your podcasts.

Sign up to the Lowdown here.

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