Instant Analysis from our CEO, Kevin McKeever:
Sagal Abdi-Wali took 45% in yesterday’s by-election, with Zack Polanski second on 33%. Polanski’s people are spinning it as proof he’s safe as leader. I’m not so sure. Labour’s vote has hardly moved since 2024, so if this was ever going to be the Greens’ breakthrough in inner London, it didn’t happen.
The bigger question is whether the Greens have already passed their peak. The twist is that plenty in Labour will be quietly hoping he stays. Polanski is polling well below his own party and is now the most unpopular party leader in the country. He’s becoming a drag on the Green ticket, and Labour won’t mind that one bit.
For Andy Burnham, it’s more evidence that he can win anywhere, from Makerfield to Camden. But I’d say the result isn’t emphatic enough to get the early election chatter going.
In Camden, the story is only just starting. Sagal is keeping her council seat for now, so voters in Camden Square don’t have to go through yet another election. The Labour Group will agree a timetable for choosing her successor as Leader of the Council over the weekend, and it should be published early next week.
Whoever wins will be Camden’s fourth leader in under two and a half years. We have the inside track on the runners and riders. If you’ve got projects in Camden, or you want to know who’ll be in the leader’s office when your scheme reaches committee, get in touch tomorrow@lowickhedry.com.
Our view